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2015: Long road to Aso Rock

Jonathan, Attahiru Jega and Buhari

In this piece, TUNDE ODESOLA brings into focus the issues likely to shape the 2015 presidential election

It has the trappings of a photo-finish thriller. The actors are maestros and they are poised for the zero hour. They know the rules of the game although they engage in dubious practice, feigning ignorance at times and claiming to know it all in the same breath. Indeed, the stage is set for the country’s 2015 presidential election.

Incidentally, the epic battle is set to take place on Saint Valentine’s Day.

Going by the balance of forces, the presidential election is likely to be the keenest and most intriguing in the history of the country. Unlike the election that produced Sir Ahmadu Bello as the Prime Minister at Independence and the elections that produced school teacher, Alhaji Shehu Shagari, as president in 1979 and 1983, the oncoming election may go down to the wire.

An insight into the tone the election may assume in the South-West came up when a group held the Yoruba Progress Summit in Ile-Ife, a few weeks ago. The summit, which attracted topmost Yoruba traditional rulers that included the Ooni of Ife, Oba Okunade Sijuwade, also had President Goodluck Jonathan in attendance. The event was attended by the leader of the Peoples Democratic Party in the South-West, Chief Bode George; Ekiti State governor, Mr. Ayo Fayose, a former Minister of State for Defence, Mr. Musiliu Obanikoro; a former senator, Chief Iyiola Omisore, among others.

The event, which underlines the struggle between the PDP and the All Progressives Congress to control the South-West, turned awry when the students of the Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife, venue of the summit, turned against the Very Important Personalities at the event. Security officials had a hectic time ensuring a safe passage for the President and other dignitaries as the students protested the blocking of the major road in the university because of the President’s visit. The students said it was insensitive for security operatives to cordon off roads to their lecture rooms, where examinations were being held.

A statement by a pan-Yoruba socio-political group, Afenifere Renewal Group, decried the summit. In the statement signed by its Publicity Secretary, Kunle Famoriyo, the group said, “For the past five years under President Goodluck Jonathan’s administration, Yoruba people have been deliberately marginalised and skewed out of national reckoning, especially in terms of key appointments and opportunity to partake in key sectors of the economy. We are surprised that President Jonathan believes the position of the Speaker, over which he has no control, is enough to atone for the deliberate marginalisation in key appointments, over which he has control. In any case, we do not need a ‘Progress Summit’ in Yorubaland. We already have a progressive culture based on democratic and egalitarian values. What the Yoruba nation needs is how to be delivered from the retrogressive forces imposed on us by the Nigerian state. The Yoruba nation was well ahead in terms of development until the forced union called Nigeria began to steal our institutions from us. Obafemi Awolowo University, being one of the stolen institutions, is good only to address the need to restructure Nigeria, not for an effort to sustain the status quo.”

Another factor that would shape the election is the perception of Nigerians over the performance of President Jonathan in the area of power generation as the billions of naira spent on the power sector in the last six years have not translated into uninterrupted electricity provision. But the Senior Special Assistant to Jonathan on Public Affairs, Dr. Doyin Okupe, said no government in the history of the country had transformed the power sector than the current administration. Okupe, who spoke when he visited PUNCH corporate headquarters along Lagos-Ibadan Expressway a few weeks ago, explained that subsequent administrations in the country had not done the type of turnaround maintenance and rehabilitation that the Jonathan administration had done. Okupe said, “The Jonathan administration has improved the lots of Nigerians in terms of keeping to its promises. We may not have scored 100 per cent but we are not where we were before. There is some form of bias against President Goodluck Jonathan. This bias has been sponsored and supported by some existing geo-political disparity and disconnect that preceded his becoming President.

“The North felt that it was not fair to have someone from another part of the country other than a northerner to take over the leadership of the country after the death of President Umaru Yar’Adua. For that reason, many parts of the North became quite recalcitrant and unforgiving towards Jonathan. Their behaviour towards him is not because Jonathan is a bad person or because they feel he would not do well but because they see him as somebody who has taken their turn in power. That was the beginning of Jonathan’s problems.

“I have worked very closely with Presidents in the past. I say it with all sense of responsibility; Jonathan has a great vision for this country. This administration has succeeded on several fronts than previous administrations.”

But not a few analysts believe that the anti-corruption crusade under Jonathan is a toothless bulldog because the administration has yet to record a conviction in the fight against corruption in the last six years. Despite the public outcry against the recruitment exercise by the Nigeria Immigration Service, in which 21 Nigerians died, the administration has not found any official guilty. Also, the promise made by the President that the families of the deceased would be given jobs has not been fulfilled. In like manner, the promise that the money paid by the job seekers would be refunded has remained empty.

The Minister of Interior, Mr. Abba Moro, who hails from the same local government area with the Senate President, David Mark, was widely accused of being culpable in the poor conduct of the nationwide aptitude test for Nigerians seeking employment into the NIS. Nine months after the Senate Committee on Interior submitted its report on the investigation into the March 15, 2014 tragedy, the Senate has yet to release the findings of the panel. Moro, had at the senate investigative hearing, admitted negligence in the recruitment exercise. He had said, “With regards to the ill-fated day, I cannot abdicate responsibility; the buck in the entire exercise stops at my table.” An activist, Amitolu Shutti, said, “Moral corruption is the highest level of corruption. The Jonathan administration appears not to be ready to fight corruption.”

In the same vein, the yearly payment of N260bn subsidy on kerosene by the Federal Government is seen as another conduit by which taxpayers’ money is being cornered by a privileged few on the corridors of power. Despite the colossal amount on subsidy, a litre of kerosene costs between N100 and N150 even as the scarce commodity remained beyond the reach of the average Nigerian. Also, the unchecked theft of 200,000 barrels of Nigeria’s crude daily has been condemned by a cross-section of Nigerians who see the Jonathan administration as weak in the fight against graft.

However, the fall in oil price has taken its toll on both the federal and state government which owe workers salaries. Specifically, the Federal Government is owing 70,000 workers three-month salaries just as some state governments, including Osun, Oyo, Benue, Plateau and Abia are owing workers’ salaries. The history of austere measure with its attendant inflation on price commodities in the country could repeat itself and this could make the electorate take a hard stance against the government.

However, the power of incumbency is a major factor in Nigerian politics. The control of the Armed Forces and other security agencies by the incumbent government could count for Jonathan as some security chiefs and officials could become overzealous and attempt to favour the Federal Government in their conduct. The outgoing Flag Officer Commanding, Eastern Naval Command, Rear Admiral Charles Medani, on Monday, sounded a note of warning to officers and ratings of the Nigerian Navy against engaging in partisan practice during the 2015 general elections. Medani said, “As citizens, you are entitled to vote for candidates of your choice but as Naval personnel, you must be strictly neutral in discharging whatever security responsibilities that you have been ordered to carry out in support of INEC.” He spoke during the official handover of the leadership of the command to his successor, Rear Admiral Henry Babalola, in Calabar, Cross River State.

The National Publicity Secretary, APC, Alhaji Lai Mohammed, said the opposition party is poised to assume power next year.

Mohammed said, “Nigerians are ready for the change which the APC symbolises. The Jonathan government has disappointed Nigerians, who are ready to vote him out.”

A major talking point against the candidature of the APC presidential candidate is his age. At 72, Buhari is seen as being too old to lead the country at this critical time. But many proponents of Buhari presidency are quick to recall that Nelson Mandela became South Africa president at the age of 76. A pro-Buhari campaigner, Mr. Bola Ilori, said, “Mandela ruled for five years in South Africa. Chief Obafemi Awolowo was 74 years old when he contested for presidency in 1983 while Dr. Nnamdi Azikiwe was 79 years old when he contested in 1983 and the Ikemba of Nnewi, Chief Odumegwu Ojukwu, was 74 in 2007 when he contested for presidency on the platform of the All Progressive Grand Alliance.”

But a group, Yoruba Youth Movement, said Buhari was erroneously being clothed in the garb of a nationalist in order to deceive Nigerians. A statement signed by the coordinator of the group, Mr. Isaac Akinade, said, “Buhari has never pretended that he loves the Yoruba. He has consistently shown this in his past dealings with the Yoruba. He ensured that he detained some prominent Yoruba leaders when he overthrew a democratic government on December 31, 1983. He detained a former Governor of Ondo State, the revered Chief Adekunle Ajasin, who was discharged and acquitted of all corruption charges. He also detained a former Governor of Ogun State, Chief Bisi Onabanjo and a former Governor of the Old Bendel State, the late Ambrose Alli. When Buhari was the Chairman of the Petroleum Trust Fund, he skewed infrastructure in favour of the North – against the South-West. Buhari is a tribal lord and not a nationalist. Nobody should sell Buhari to the South-West because he doesn’t love the Yoruba.”